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Winter is Coming: German Economy Doomed in Wake of Anti-Russian Sanctions, Scholars Say_我的网站

一 |     While Germany's producer prices observe the biggest rise since records began in 1949, the index has also shown the biggest month-on-month increase, leaping 5.3% from June to July.,"The outlook for the further development [of the economy] is currently noticeably gloomy," and marked by "a high degree of uncertainty," Germany's Finance Ministry said in its August monthly report, quoted by Reuters.,"We have something like a tsunami coming," said Florian Josef Hoffmann, former president of the Chamber of Industry and Commerce East Thuringia and author of "Occupy Economics." "It’s calm water, everything goes slowly down. For example, furniture retail has completely stopped and other things are going down, too. Everything goes slower step by step. But the disaster comes, as I told you, in autumn. And that will be very bad. I can't imagine that this economy can easily survive this really critical situation.",Germans have been experiencing some pre-existing domestic problems as the government turned down nuclear and coal plants in order to switch over to gas and renewables, he noted. However, anti-Russian sanctions which included a sweeping energy embargo "create a real huge problem for the economy because it is based on the cheap Russian gas and now it's cut down by the own will of the government," according to Hoffmann.,"They cut down the gas import [from Russia]," he explained. "So the whole strategy of the past is ruined, and that's the problem. And that makes for great uncertainty because more or less the ship runs against the ice mountain. It's more than uncertainty; I see even the crash coming along for the German economy, not only because of these sanctions, but because of the consequences of the sanctions.",Energy Crisis in EuropeEU Will Not Replace Russian Gas in Full If Nord Stream 1 Remains Shut, Expert Says19 July, 18:20 GMT,The Russo-German chill started with Berlin suspending the Nord Stream 2 project on February 22, 2022. Moscow launched a special military operation to demilitarize and de-Nazify Ukraine two days later, after the US, NATO and the EU defied Russia's draft security agreements envisaging ending the transatlantic military alliance's expansion and deployment in Ukraine.,In the aftermath of the operation, the US and its NATO allies have introduced several packages of sanctions. The EU pledged to end its dependence on Russian fossil fuels before 2030, following in Washington and London's footsteps. In April, Brussels laid out targets to slash its demand for Russian natural gas by two-thirds by the end of 2022.,Western sanctions also complicated Gazprom's maintenance of the existing Nord Stream 1 infrastructure. The Russian company was forced to reduce shipments via the network in mid-June over delays in the repair of a Siemens-built high-pressure gas pumping turbine in Canada. Ottawa deliberately delayed the return of the turbine, which had undergone maintenance work, back to Europe, citing anti-Russian sanctions. To make matters worse, the Canadian side did not provide proper documentation for the turbine which resulted in further delays. In late July, Gazprom said that it had to stop the operation of another Siemens gas turbine engine for maintenance, which prompted western press to groundlessly claim that Russia was deliberately cutting gas supplies to Europe.,Berlin's energy policy is dictated from Washington for the detriment of the people of Germany, according to Dr. Christian Blex, an AfD lawmaker from the state parliament of North Rhine-Westphalia.,"The sanctions that the hypermoral German government in particular is repeatedly demanding are therefore particularly bad for our country," he said. "Any responsible government would base its actions on the well-being of its own people rather than acting as a vassal of the US.",Energy Crisis in EuropeGermany Should Immediately Launch Nord Stream 2, Bundestag Vice Speaker Says08:42 GMT,Biggest Problems Coming in Autumn, Winter,As of yet, the negative impact of sanctions is not particularly felt by ordinary Germans, according to the observers.,"At the moment we don't feel anything. Big bills are only announced and haven't yet reached the consumers," said Hoffmann. "But the announcements are that the energy prices will go up three to five fold, for many people [this will be] simply unpayable. That’s what is going to come in autumn. Ordinary people prepare by buying canned food or wood or gas stoves. What I also know is, for instance, that not only the ordinary people, but also the cities are preparing. The city of Dusseldorf is cutting down the heating of all gangways in their administration facilities. They are cutting the temperature down from 21 degrees centigrade to 19 or even 17, closing saunas and heating outside swimming pools. They are cutting down lights on public buildings.",While the people are not yet in panic, the German authorities are, according to Hoffmann.,"The government is talking about reducing the turnover tax for gas from 19% to 7% and they are trying to reduce the tax load for pensioners and other instruments to calm down the people," he noted. "But it's ridiculous what they plan when you look at the task of breaking a huge breakdown of the economy. It's only peanuts.",Meanwhile, businesses are expecting climbing power prices, and they are already thinking about how to compensate for that, according to him.,"The German economy looks to the future with serious concerns," echoed Blex. "In contrast to many citizens, business knows exactly what the energy crisis will bring. In public, however, criticism is heard only hesitantly. Fear of green politics and the media is still very great. As the suffering increases, the criticism will become louder… The biggest problems are coming up for the ordinary people with the inflation of food prices and extremely with the power costs. It will hit the poor, the low income class, those who will have to pay not 40, 50 or 60 euros per month for their power, but 200, 400 or even 500. That will make them not only hungry but upset.",WorldGerman Craftsmen Urge Chancellor Scholz to Scrap Sanctions Against Russia13:40 GMT,The AfD lawmaker expects a worsening recession with industrial production falling noticeably in Germany. He forecasts that short-time work will be reintroduced, adding that retailers are already noticing that more and more Germans are making significant savings. After all, the German national debt will continue to rise rapidly, according to him.,For his part, Hoffmann does not rule out that the people will eventually take to the streets en masse, stressing that the German government has already been preparing for this scenario.,"Our Ministry of Defense is preparing a special task force of 1900 soldiers, which have to keep peace within the country," he said. "This is an incredible decision. Our Bundeswehr is an army solely for defense against attacks from the outside. This basic rule is now broken, which means we are now in a totalitarian regime which has no respect for laws and our Constitution. They simply do what they want including censorship. And as one can see, they are preparing for a revolution.",Hoffmann cites German Chancellor Olaf Scholz as saying that the country's forces won't shoot at the people. However, the author expresses skepticism about Scholz' pledge: "It is like 'nobody wants to build a wall' in 1961 and then it was built some weeks later. So, the situation is disastrous," he concluded.。

二 |     2024年7月6日，新加坡总理黄循财出席新加坡青年志愿团队10周年庆嘉年华。以下内容为新加坡眼根据国会英文资料翻译整理：国家青年理事会主席兼首席执行官，我的内阁和国会同事们，青年团领导和志愿者们女士们、先生们早上好，很高兴能来到这里参加青年志愿团队十周年纪念活动。成就这对青年志愿团队来说是一个非常重要的里程碑。当然，对我个人而言，它也有着特别的意义。因为10年前我在文化、社区及青年部（Ministry of Culture, Community and Youth，简称MCCY）时，我们成立了青年志愿团队。当时我们的目标是为年轻人提供更多机会，在社会上产生积极影响，并帮助塑造我们未来想要的新加坡。我相信，我们的青年人有着理想主义、活力和激情，能够让新加坡，甚至让世界变得更美好。

三 | 只要给予机会，你们所有年轻人都会挺身而出。

四 | 当初提出成立青年团的想法时，我不确定会得到怎样的回应。

五 | 我也不确定会有多少人前来响应，或者这种影响力是否能够持续下去。因此，在很多方面，成立青年团当时是对未知领域的一次信仰飞跃。

六 | 我们最初的青年志愿团队是由90名志愿者组成的。这并不是一个很大的团体。但我们认为，无论人数多少，开始得好才是最重要。确保每个参与者都有良好的经验，随着时间推移，青年人中会有积极的反馈，口碑传播开来，我们可以有机地发展和壮大。我很高兴看到，在过去的10年里，这确实发生了。从最初的90名志愿者，至今我们已经拥有超过30,000名青年团志愿者了。你们参与了广泛的志愿活动，涵盖从心理健康到关怀老人、环保以及帮助特殊需求群体等各个领域。

七 | 在国家需要的支援时候，你们挺身而出。例如，在新加坡疫情期间，许多像你们这样的青年团志愿者：为弱势群体分发食物。为露宿者翻新庇护所，为我们的医护工作者和移民工人打包关爱包。甚至还与孤独的长者结为朋友，帮助他们不被遗忘，特别是那些在家中孤立的长者。在过去的十年里，许多人与我们一起走过了青年志愿团队的发展和建设之路。当然，我和MCCY的领导团队都非常高兴能看到自我任职以来的所有部长们，今天都在这里。接过我的接力棒分别是傅海燕部长，然后是唐振辉部长。今天我们齐聚一堂来支持你们。我们在国家青年理事会有一个优秀的团队，首席执行官David和团队主管KK。他们都是我招募的，并且已经留任了10年。在座的许多社区合作伙伴，学校领导和工作人员，以及国家青年理事会的工作人员们。我非常感谢你们。当然，还要感谢青年团的所有志愿者，包括今天与我们同在的整个十年里的志愿者，包括几位先锋队的成员。所以，谢谢大家。干得好！再次祝贺青年志愿团队成立十周年！青年共同推动新加坡前进明年我们将庆祝SG60，也就是新加坡独立60周年。这是我们国家建设道路上的一个里程碑。

八 | 这是庆祝我们成就的时刻，也是尊重过去几代人的机会，正是他们使我们走到了今天这一步。

九 | 但同时，这也是一个展望未来、思考我们如何建设未来新加坡的机会。在我们进行“新加坡携手前进”（Forward Singapore）的过程中，我们听取了许多年轻人的意见。你们向我们分享了对一个更新的新加坡梦想的期望。一个以价值观、团结和目标为基础的社会。

十 | 一个社会，提供各种机会，让你以不同方式追求自己的抱负和梦想。我们也希望在新加坡，每个人都能成为自己最优秀的版本。我和我的团队将努力实现这些共同的愿景。但我们不能独自完成这个任务。我们也需要你们的帮助。你们每一个人都将在书写新加坡故事的下一章中发挥作用。我知道，许多青年志愿团队的志愿者已经在为此努力。比如，我在2014年遇到的Sheila Manokaran。

十一 | 我想今天Sheila也在这里。她是青年志愿团队志愿者先锋队的成员之一，就是我刚才提到的那90位志愿者之一。她从青年志愿团队毕业后，为儿童癌症基金会组织了一场捐赠活动，为该基金会筹集了55,000新元。而她并未止步于此；她继续为其他活动如紫色行动做志愿者。

十二 | 她回馈培养她的社区，如今她与自己的母校ITE合作，为ITE学生开发实习机会。她还是青年志愿团队咨询委员会的成员。除了全职工作，她还是River Valley Irregulars的联合创始人，这是一个为年轻人提供寻找工作、实习机会以及与其他志同道合人士合作的平台。Sheila，我不知道你是如何找到时间做这一切的。但是，干得好，感谢你的贡献！像Sheila这样的许多青年志愿团队领导和志愿者们不仅在青年团项目期间做出了巨大贡献，甚至在毕业后继续志愿活动，继续对我们的社会产生积极影响。因此，感谢每一位不辞劳苦，帮助建设更美好新加坡的人。

十三 | 政府将为年轻人提供更多贡献的机会。这就是为什么我们最近设立了青年委员会，由国家青年理事会协调。

十四 | 这些由青年主导的委员会将讨论你们关心的问题，并提出建议，帮助我们在新加坡做得更好。到目前为止，我们已经设立了四个委员会，分别关注以下领域：财务安全、职业和终身学习、数字福祉以及环境和可持续发展。这些委员会已经开始运作。事实上，他们自去年11月以来就一直如此。他们每月会面，深入了解这些问题，集思广益，甚至与政府机构讨论政策选择。其中一些委员会还在自行组织学习之旅。例如，负责数字福祉的青年委员会最近发起了一次访问谷歌公司，了解该公司在其平台上建立信任和安全性方面所做的工作。这些青年委员会，共四个，将在下个月的首届青年政策论坛上展示他们的想法。

十五 | 他们将与我分享这些想法，我期待听到他们的发言。青年委员会只是年轻人贡献的一种方式，我们将为大家提供许多其他机会，让你们继续回馈社会，共同塑造我们的未来。青年志愿团队的下一个目标现在，尽管政府正在开发更多青年参与的途径，青年志愿团队本身也应该更新其吸引年轻人的方法。让我简要提出青年团可以考虑的三个领域。首先，让年轻人更容易迈出志愿服务的第一步。今天，当青年人报名参加青年志愿团队的常规志愿服务项目时，至少主要项目，他们通常需要每月至少投入约8小时，连续3个月。这是一个很大的承诺，青年人面对课业、实习和课外活动等多重任务。并不是每个人都能够为志愿服务做出如此长期的时间承诺。因此，青年志愿团队已经开始一些时间承诺较少的小型项目，让年轻人能够迈出第一步，体验志愿服务的味道。

十六 | 因此，我鼓励青年志愿团队继续朝这个方向发展，开发更多的小型志愿服务项目，让年轻人可以参与一些规模不那么大的活动，他们可以在准备好后考虑更多的参与。其次，我鼓励青年志愿团队开发更多青年可以参与志愿服务的领域。你们已经在8个领域开展了志愿服务项目——心理健康；环境保护；特殊需要；老年人；社区关怀；客工；青少年；以及儿童和家庭。

十七 | 这些领域涵盖了广泛的范围。不过，我认为仍然有发展的空间。例如，为了更好地支援老年人——这是你们现有的重点领域之一，青年志愿团队在帮助老年人进行健康筛查方面发挥了重要作用。然而，良好的老龄化不仅仅涉及身体健康。我们知道许多老年人独自生活，如果没有得到有效的参与，他们可能面临心理健康问题或社会孤立的风险。因此，青年志愿团队还可以做更多的工作，比如与这些老年人建立友谊，鼓励他们走出家门，并帮助他们保持有意义的参与。这只是一个例子。我相信，还会有许多其他的想法来拓展年轻人积极影响的空间。第三点，我鼓励青年志愿团队举办更多海外探险活动。青年志愿团队已经派遣志愿者前往东盟国家、中国和印度等地进行探险项目。我认为相当多的青年志愿者领袖已经有机会参与其中，并且在这趟旅程中获得了非常棒的经验。在疫情之前，我们每年大约会组织探险项目，让约4,000名青年参与。这些项目在疫情期间暂停了。现在疫情结束了，我们也已经恢复了这些项目，但我们还未能像之前那样组织这么多的海外探险。去年，我们只有大约2,000名青年出国，这大约是疫情前的一半水平。因此，我们需要做得更多，设计更多有吸引力的海外项目，并鼓励更多年轻人参与，以便他们能够从中受益。例如，青年志愿团队可以为我们的年轻人创造更多机会，让他们与各个国家的青年志愿者合作。

十八 | 这样，他们可以建立紧密的关系，拓展网络，并与同龄人建立友谊。随着时间的推移，我们也可以在新加坡以外建立一个更强大的志愿者生态系统。结论总之，我们都知道我们周围的世界正在发生变化，而且这种变化比以往任何时候都更为迅速。在过去的30年里，我们享受了一个相对和平的地区和相对和平的世界。不幸的是，我们现在正处于一个新的竞争与冲突的时代，主要大国之间的对抗加剧，世界局势也在不断分裂。

十九 | 新加坡将不得不应对这些复杂的地缘政治挑战。

| 但这并不是我们第一次面对艰难的外部环境。我们在独立时以及过去60年中多次经历过这样的挑战。每一次，我们都团结一心，克服了风雨，并变得更加坚强。我们能够做到这一点的关键在于新加坡人之间强烈的团结和信任感。

| 青年志愿团队对加强这些共同纽带做出了重要贡献，特别是在我们的年轻人中间。你们展示了当我们怀着共同愿景和目标团结一致时，能够实现什么样的成就。你们改变了许多人的生活，提升了社区的福祉。

| 你们的动力、热情和服务承诺向我们展示了作为一个坚强团结的民族的意义。在这个十周年纪念日，我们不仅庆祝你们的成就，也展望未来，充满信心和希望。

| 让我们以坚定的决心和勇气迎接时代的挑战，信任我们的同胞。让我们携手合作，带领新加坡迈向更加光明的未来。感谢大家，再次祝贺十周年快乐！以下是英文质询内容：Chairman and CEO of the National Youth CouncilMy Cabinet and Parliamentary ColleaguesYouth Corps leaders and volunteersLadies and GentlemenGood morning and it is very good to be here to mark the Youth Corps’ 10th anniversary.Achievement This is a very significant milestone for the Youth Corps.Of course, it also has very special meaning for me.Because I was at MCCY 10 years ago when we started the Youth Corps.Our aim back then was to provide young people with more opportunities to make a positive impact on society and to help shape the Singapore we want for the future.I believed that our youths would have the idealism, the energy, and the passion to make Singapore, and even to make the world a better place. And that all of you young people would step up if given the opportunity to do so.I was not sure what response we would get when we mooted the idea of Youth Corps. I was not sure how many people would step forward, or whether the impact would be sustained.。

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