A | BARCELONA, Spain -- Barcelona accountant Oriol Calvo ran afoul of the law when he was arrested in 2019 during a mass protest by supporters of Catalonia's independence from Spain that turned violent. A court found him guilty of public disorder and of aggressive behavior toward a police officer — offenses he denies. The 25-year-old is among several thousand ordinary citizens who faced legal trouble for their often tiny part in Catalonia’s illegal secession bid that brought Spain to the brink of rupture six years ago.Now Calvo hopes his conviction and those of many others will be wiped clean if Spain’s acting prime minister, Pedro Sánchez, follows through and issues a sweeping amnesty for the separatists in exchange for their movement's political parties helping him form a new government in Madrid.Calvo's sentence of 18 months was suspended since it was his first offense, but it is still a stain on his record and has affected his willingness to participate in politics. He has stopped going to rallies for independence for fears that it could complicate his legal situation. He also felt betrayed.“I became very bitter,” Calvo said. “I felt betrayed by the justice system, but also I thought about all the efforts that the movement had made in the fight to achieve independence that had gotten us nowhere.”Sánchez, who has granted pardons to several leaders of the movement in the past, says that the amnesty will be positive for Spain because it will further reduce tensions inside Catalonia. Yet no one doubts that he is doing it only out of political necessity given how divisive the Catalan independence movement is both inside Catalonia and the rest of Spain.A national election in July left no party close to an absolute majority and with Sánchez in need of the support of several smaller parties to stay in power. Those include two pro-secession Catalan parties who led the unsuccessful 2017 breakaway attempt and who now find themselves holding the key votes in Parliament that Sánchez requires. Given the chance to play kingmaker, the two separatist parties are using their leverage. They have made an amnesty law as a prerequisite for supporting Sánchez.The clock is already ticking. Sánchez has until Nov. 27 to form a government, otherwise new elections will be triggered for January.Sánchez and his center-left Socialist party have tried to keep as quiet as possible on the amnesty question, but the leader has acknowledged that talks are on-going with the Catalan parties, including one led by the fugitive former regional leader of Catalonia, Carles Puigdemont, who fled Spain for Belgium after his dream to carve out a new state in northeast Spain collapsed.Spain’s courts are still trying to have Puigdemont extradited. Given that Puigdemont is considered an enemy of the state for many Spaniards, any deal that could benefit him is politically toxic.Tens of thousands of people rallied in downtown Barcelona on Oct. 8 against a possible amnesty in a sign of the danger that Sánchez runs.An amnesty "would be shameful because Spain can’t be governed by people who want to split from the country,” said 23-year-old Pablo Seco, an aeronautical engineer who attended the rally.For Montserrat Nebrera, professor of constitutional law at the International University of Catalonia, the negotiations between Sánchez and the separatist leaders are a “hall of mirrors” wherein both sides try to appear that they have the upper hand, when in reality they need one another.“Pedro Sánchez needs the amnesty law to pass so he can get the four votes he is lacking,” Nebrera told the AP. “The secessionists, however, also need to show their people that they are not only interested in saving the necks of their leaders ... but also of the people who disobeyed authorities or damaged public property and whose punishments, while not huge, have greatly complicated their lives.”Spain’s conservative party, which lost a bid to form a government last month, is already bashing Sánchez for what it describes as selling Spain out to stay in power. Former Socialist prime minister Felipe González has also said that the amnesty is not merited.Spain granted a sweeping amnesty during its transition back to democracy following the death of dictator Francisco Franco in 1975. But legal experts are divided over the constitutionality of an amnesty for the Catalan separatists.The pro-independence Catalan organization Omnium Cultural says that an amnesty should benefit some 4,400 more people, mostly minor officials and ordinary citizens who either helped to organize an illegal 2017 referendum or participated, like Calvo, in protests that turned ugly.But Omnium and the two Catalan separatist parties say they want much more than just a clean slate for people in trouble with the law: they want the terms of the amnesty to establish a legal pretext for Catalonia eventually holding a binding, authorized referendum on independence.“For us, the amnesty is not the solution to the conflict, it is the starting point from which the conflict can begin to be resolved,” said Xavier Antich, president of Omnium Cultural.That going-for-broke position, however, may run the risk of wrecking the whole operation, as well as leaving people like Calvo in the lurch.“They have already tried to have a referendum authorized and it has not worked,” Calvo said. “So I believe that trying to force something that we know isn’t going to happen is useless and could derail the amnesty talks.”___Videojournalist Hernán Muñoz contributed to this report.。 同治六年六月二十日，即公历1867年7月21日，时任两江总督的曾国藩与幕僚赵烈文聊天时忧心忡忡地说道： “京中来人云：都门气象甚恶，明火执仗之案时出，而市肆乞丐成群，甚至妇女亦祼身无袴。民穷财尽，恐有异变，奈何？” 对于老牌发达国家法国来说，“民穷财尽”当然不至于，但“明火执仗之案时出”却也为其敲响了警钟。 当地时间10月19日，一群窃贼光天化日之下进入卢浮宫，7分钟时间内盗走9件珍贵藏品。
B | 法国内政部长表示，有3或4名窃贼利用搬运家具的电动升降梯闯入卢浮宫的阿波罗展厅，拿着圆盘切割机用几乎是明抢的方式大肆劫掠文物。
C | 其中一件是拿破仑三世皇后的后冠，窃贼在逃跑时掉落，导致该王冠部分毁损，卢浮宫证实已寻回该件藏品。
D | 颇为有趣的一个细节是，窃贼曾经跟保安打过照面，保安非但没有将其制服，反而遵从窃贼要求将参观人员疏散（事后表示是在窃贼“威胁下”疏散现场）。 整个事件中无人受伤，用法国官员的话说叫“没有暴力，非常专业”。 这不是法国博物馆第一次遭盗窃/抢劫了，就在上个月，法国杜布歇博物馆被偷走价值1100万美元的三件中国瓷器；2024年11月，巴黎科涅克-杰博物馆七件重要藏品被盗，其中五件被找回；同月，持枪歹徒突袭了位于勃艮第的希隆博物馆，盗走价值数百万英镑的艺术品…… 要知道这些博物馆都拥有强大的安保团队，可他们面对抢劫犯时并没有发挥什么作用，真是应了一句经典电影台词： 一条街道的干净与否，背后往往牵扯到政府财力和管理水平。 干净整洁的街道意味着所在辖区居民素质高、治安良好、政府财力和治理能力到位；反之，假如垃圾满地、到处污渍，则大概率是个穷区，连环卫工人的薪水都发不起。 同样的道理，偷盗抢劫频发绝不是一件小事，它可以被视为社会礼崩乐坏的前兆。
E | 倘若不能果断制止，将盗贼绳之以法，会形成某种意义上的正面激励，导致越来越多的人铤而走险。 现在法国就面临这样的难题。 过去一个多月的法国政局，用“鸡飞狗跳”来形容一点也不为过。 先是前总理贝鲁为了给2026年预算案争取支持，9月8日主动在国会发起政府信任案投票，结果失败并黯然辞职。 紧接着前国防部长勒科尔尼被马克龙总统任命为总理，他刚于10月5日晚公布新一届内阁名单，次日便在左翼社会党和右翼共和党的群起攻击下宣告辞职。 令人哭笑不得的是，勒科尔尼随后又在马克龙的极力挽留下“二进宫”，再度被委派组建政府——法国总理已经到了无人可用、无人愿意干的地步。 10月14日，勒科尔尼在国会发表政策演说，向社会党做出多项重大让步，包括暂停执行养老金改革直到下一届总统选举、向富裕人群加税等。 众所周知，2023年发起的养老金改革是马克龙第二任期的标志性政策，结果闹出了全国大罢工。 马克龙作为总统难道不知道“养老金”是红线议题吗？之所以硬推，自然是财政实在没办法支撑了。 法国的公共债务规模高达GDP的113%，较欧元区均值高出25个百分点；政府财政赤字达GDP的5.8%，是欧盟均值的近两倍。 欧洲经济学家普遍认为，法国债务问题已到了差于希腊、葡萄牙和西班牙的程度，欧盟从未如此接近又一场主权债务危机，而这次危机若在欧盟第二大经济体法国爆发，整个欧洲经济都会受到重创。 实际上，目前各国政府都在玩“借债还债”的无限循环游戏，就看谁的“信心”更足，比如美国人搞出了AI概念，大家对美债的信心就会随之上升。 而一旦市场信心崩塌，“借债还债”游戏就会中断——马克龙已经嗅到了危机，这才不得不硬着头皮削减支出，只是搞砸了罢了。 法国是一个对青年人非常不友好的国家，在财政政策和法律层面倾向于保护已经累积财富的中老年人，同时严重限制劳动者和企业家通过工作、创业、置业和投资致富的机会。 在政府支出端，养老金已占到公共开支接近三成，成为压低劳动者收入最大的重担。 老年护理和老年慢性疾病相关的医疗开支不断加速上涨，国防、交通、基建、住房、教育、科研等开支则因此受到挤兑。 简单来说，法国国家机器深度介入了经济，其实际效果是以牺牲当下劳动者和未来世代的利益为代价，尽可能维持老年人的优厚待遇。 统计数据显示，法国是全世界唯一一个老年人（65岁及以上）人均收入高于劳动年龄人口（18岁～64岁）的国家，老年人贫困率在发达国家中垫底，而20%的未成年人和16%的18岁～29岁人口生活在贫困线以下。
F | 经济模式偏向老年人是发达经济体的普遍现象，但在法国最为极端，在老龄化的背景下，老年选民的比重越来越高，使得削减其利益变得愈发困难。 这种世代与政策矛盾导致法国政治异常分裂，选民在左翼、中间派、右派、极右翼几大阵营间均衡分布，与议会“三分天下”的格局基本相应，政治正变得碎片化。
G | 至少在短期内，诉诸选票箱已不能扭转法国的命运，投票渐渐成为政客把做决定的责任推卸到选民手中的一种仪式性工具。 马克龙接手的法兰西是一个不折不扣的烂摊子，不仅经济发展停滞，而且内部矛盾愈演愈烈。 作为拿破仑以来最年轻的法国元首，雄心勃勃的马克龙曾推出一系列改革措施，但全部以抗议、瘫痪、暂停而告终。 现如今马克龙似乎已经厌倦了处理内政，开始把剩余任期的精力放到加沙、乌克兰等外交议题上，天天在国外飞来飞去，成为“最爱出差的总统”。 本文来自微信公众号：江宁知府，作者：印闲生。
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